What Are The Odds Trump Goes To Prison? It Depends

Judge Juan Merchan Postpones Donald Trump’s Sentencing Until After Election

The lawfare surrounding Trump has become such a farce. Firstly, the 34 charges brought by District Attorney Bragg in New York resulting in convictions were a sham. Try to get a fair trial in New York if your name is Trump. You also had a biased judge, Merchan, who pushed Trump’s sentencing from July 11 to September 18 to give himself more time to mull over his decision.

Just as so much is political, even in the justice system, it looks like Merchan didn’t want to be seen as engaging in election interference and has kicked the can down the road until after the election in November but before the inauguration in January. You can see Merchan’s predicament.

Scenario 1:

If Trump wins the election, does Merchan really want to be seen as the judge who incarcerates an elected President? That won’t happen because how would it work? Trump would have Secret Service protection—poor as that protection was in Butler, Pennsylvania—and agents would have to stay with him in jail. 

If Trump was sentenced to house incarceration, his house could be the White House. Again, it would make Merchan look silly, and since he would be looking out for his own self-interest, the worst Trump would get is a suspended sentence. It would make the whole point of the exercise silly.

Scenario 2:

If Trump loses the election, as predicted by Professor Alan Lichtman who’s been right 9 out of 10 Presidential elections, Merchan would be free to sentence Trump to jail time. However, how would that work? Trump would still have lifelong Secret Service detail. Would someone sit outside his jail cell 24/7, or follow him when outside the cell?

This situation wouldn’t be very practical, so I believe Trump would be sentenced to house incarceration, which would be more amenable to Secret Service protection.

Scenario 3:

Despite Merchan’s hate for Trump, he wants to appear as the benevolent judge and give Trump a suspended sentence, even if Trump loses the election. This would put Merchan in a good light, and he wouldn’t endure the wrath of loyal Trump supporters.

So, the odds of Trump going to actual jail are slim.

Yes, in America, everything is political.